Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-02-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

DAL: 56.6%

BUF: 43.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.43

BUF: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	40	38	2	95.0%	2.90	1	0.90
BUF	C. Anderson	31	27	4	87.1%	3.59	2	-0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • DAL at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	21	2	1.79
1	BUF	10	0	0.53
2	DAL	11	0	1.18
2	BUF	15	0	0.86
3	DAL	8	0	0.61
3	BUF	30	1	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0