Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-02-28 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

WSH: 45.8%

TOR: 54.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.79

TOR: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

I. Samsonov

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	28	23	5	82.1%	3.73	1	-1.27
TOR	P. Mrazek	33	30	3	90.9%	2.56	1	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WSH at home vs TOR: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	0	0.71
1	TOR	17	0	1.23
2	WSH	14	0	0.82
2	TOR	12	0	0.65
3	WSH	12	1	1.03
3	TOR	17	1	1.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3