Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-03-01 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 8 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WPG: 54.6%

MTL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.84

MTL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	31	4	88.6%	3.43	1	-0.57
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	22	8	73.3%	3.45	1	-4.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	6	0	0.63
1	MTL	16	0	1.17
2	WPG	12	0	0.78
2	MTL	14	0	1.11
3	WPG	19	1	2.04
3	MTL	15	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 8 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0