New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-03-01 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

COL: 52.3%

NYI: 47.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.20

NYI: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

D. Kuemper

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	31	28	3	90.3%	3.25	3	0.25
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	43	38	5	88.4%	3.83	1	-1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • COL at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	NYI
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	0	1.29
1	NYI	13	0	0.40
2	COL	13	0	0.82
2	NYI	21	3	2.20
3	COL	27	1	1.72
3	NYI	11	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1