Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-03-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 68.4%

BUF: 31.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.87

BUF: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

P. Mrazek

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	P. Mrazek	31	26	5	83.9%	2.07	1	-2.93
BUF	C. Anderson	30	29	1	96.7%	1.75	0	0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	TOR
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	8	0	0.34
1	BUF	7	0	0.36
2	TOR	17	0	0.73
2	BUF	11	0	0.62
3	TOR	22	0	0.69
3	BUF	19	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9