Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-03-03 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 57.9%

VAN: 42.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.50

VAN: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	38	34	4	89.5%	3.06	1	-0.94
VAN	Thatcher Demko	27	24	3	88.9%	1.84	0	-1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs VAN: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-12-19	NYI 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	NYI
2025-03-26	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-11-14	VAN 2 - 5 NYI	NYI	VAN
2024-01-09	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.23
1	VAN	15	1	0.89
2	NYI	16	0	0.85
2	VAN	23	0	1.34
3	NYI	11	0	0.75
3	VAN	11	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0