Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 5 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 68.6%

MTL: 31.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.06

MTL: 2.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

J. Markstrom

MTL

A. Hammond

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	35	30	5	85.7%	4.26	2	-0.74
MTL	A. Hammond	34	30	4	88.2%	3.84	2	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	1.20
1	MTL	21	1	1.80
2	CGY	10	1	0.79
2	MTL	12	0	0.82
3	CGY	26	1	1.85
3	MTL	15	1	1.38
4	CGY	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	2	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.1 - 2.3