Colorado Avalanche at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-03-03 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 46.2%

COL: 53.8%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.89

COL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	43	42	1	97.7%	3.60	0	2.60
COL	P. Francouz	29	27	2	93.1%	2.69	1	0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ARI at home vs COL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-18	COL 4 - 3 ARI	COL	COL
2023-12-27	ARI 5 - 4 COL	ARI	COL
2023-12-23	COL 4 - 1 ARI	COL	COL
2023-11-30	ARI 4 - 3 COL	ARI	COL
2023-03-26	ARI 3 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	10	1	0.82
1	COL	14	0	0.86
2	ARI	15	0	1.03
2	COL	21	0	1.78
3	ARI	9	0	0.85
3	COL	17	0	0.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2