Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-03-05 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 49.5%

CHI: 50.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.32

CHI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

PHI

M. Jones

CHI

K. Lankinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	29	26	3	89.7%	2.18	1	-0.82
CHI	K. Lankinen	27	23	4	85.2%	2.23	2	-1.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	PHI 5 - 1 CHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-23	CHI 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-03-23	CHI 7 - 4 PHI	CHI	PHI
2024-11-23	PHI 3 - 2 CHI	PHI	PHI
2024-03-30	PHI 1 - 5 CHI	CHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	1	0.99
1	CHI	11	0	0.60
2	PHI	13	1	0.86
2	CHI	16	1	1.15
3	PHI	8	0	0.38
3	CHI	10	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1