Ottawa Senators at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions
2022-03-05 • Gila River Arena
Arizona Coyotes 8 - 5 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
ARI: 55.8%
OTT: 44.2%
Expected Goals
ARI: 3.20
OTT: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
ARI
S. Wedgewood
OTT
M. Murray
| Stat | ARI | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | S. Wedgewood | 46 | 41 | 5 | 89.1% | 3.77 | 2 | -1.23 |
| OTT | M. Murray | 31 | 23 | 8 | 74.2% | 3.70 | 1 | -4.30 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ARI at home vs OTT: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-01 | OTT 3 - 5 ARI | ARI | OTT |
| 2023-12-19 | ARI 4 - 3 OTT | ARI | ARI |
| 2023-01-12 | ARI 3 - 5 OTT | OTT | ARI |
| 2022-10-22 | OTT 6 - 2 ARI | OTT | OTT |
| 2022-03-14 | OTT 3 - 5 ARI | ARI | OTT |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 14 | 0 | 0.87 |
| 1 | OTT | 17 | 0 | 1.18 |
| 2 | ARI | 12 | 0 | 1.05 |
| 2 | OTT | 20 | 0 | 1.22 |
| 3 | ARI | 15 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 3 | OTT | 23 | 2 | 1.38 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 13.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Arizona Coyotes 8 - 5 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8
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