Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2022-03-06 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

CHI: 47.9%

TBL: 52.1%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.13

TBL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

CHI

M. Fleury

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	M. Fleury	32	26	6	81.2%	2.64	0	-3.36
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	24	3	88.9%	2.82	0	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CHI at home vs TBL: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CHI	12	1.00
1	TBL	9	0.63
2	CHI	12	0.97
2	TBL	13	0.64
3	CHI	10	0.85
3	TBL	20	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3