Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-03-08 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 47.3%

VGK: 52.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.98

VGK: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

PHI

C. Hart

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	48	47	1	97.9%	5.07	3	4.07
VGK	R. Lehner	21	19	2	90.5%	1.52	0	-0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.69
1	VGK	21	2	1.69
2	PHI	9	0	0.56
2	VGK	24	1	2.16
3	PHI	7	0	0.27
3	VGK	20	0	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3