Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-03-08 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 56.3%

FLA: 43.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.12

FLA: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	25	4	86.2%	2.88	1	-1.12
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	35	32	3	91.4%	2.78	0	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs FLA: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	0	1.15
1	FLA	16	0	1.11
2	PIT	20	0	0.76
2	FLA	10	1	1.04
3	PIT	12	0	0.87
3	FLA	9	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2