Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-03-08 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 58.0%

OTT: 42.0%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.32

OTT: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	28	24	4	85.7%	4.41	3	0.41
OTT	Anton Forsberg	23	22	1	95.7%	1.90	0	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • STL at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	STL
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	14	0	0.80
1	OTT	10	0	0.72
2	STL	6	0	0.20
2	OTT	19	0	1.33
3	STL	14	0	0.90
3	OTT	15	3	2.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8