Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-03-08 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 46.0%

TBL: 54.0%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.93

TBL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	24	20	4	83.3%	2.75	1	-1.25
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	26	7	78.8%	5.01	4	-1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • WPG at home vs TBL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	TBL
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	19	1	1.60
1	TBL	14	1	1.27
2	WPG	14	0	0.79
2	TBL	6	0	0.67
3	WPG	18	3	2.62
3	TBL	12	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1