Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-03-09 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Washington Capitals (OT)

Win Probability

EDM: 62.1%

WSH: 37.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.23

WSH: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

EDM

M. Koskinen

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Koskinen	32	29	3	90.6%	3.27	1	0.27
WSH	I. Samsonov	40	36	4	90.0%	4.98	2	0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	EDM 6 - 5 WSH	EDM	EDM
2025-11-19	WSH 7 - 4 EDM	WSH	WSH
2025-02-23	WSH 7 - 3 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-01-21	EDM 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	EDM
2024-03-13	EDM 7 - 2 WSH	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	24	2	2.23
1	WSH	14	0	0.71
2	EDM	12	0	1.05
2	WSH	22	1	1.44
3	EDM	15	0	1.49
3	WSH	11	0	0.75
4	EDM	2	0	0.21
4	WSH	2	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2