Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-03-09 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

VAN: 59.6%

MTL: 40.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.16

MTL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	25	22	3	88.0%	2.35	0	-0.65
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	33	28	5	84.8%	4.19	2	-0.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VAN at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	VAN
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	17	0	1.21
1	MTL	9	0	0.41
2	VAN	21	1	1.26
2	MTL	14	0	1.11
3	VAN	16	1	1.72
3	MTL	14	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8