Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-03-10 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 41.6%

VGK: 58.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.62

VGK: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 52%

BUF

C. Anderson

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	31	30	1	96.8%	2.65	1	1.65
VGK	L. Brossoit	24	21	3	87.5%	3.13	3	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs VGK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	2	1.11
1	VGK	12	0	0.60
2	BUF	6	0	0.63
2	VGK	17	0	1.16
3	BUF	14	1	1.39
3	VGK	13	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4