Arizona Coyotes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-03-10 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Arizona Coyotes (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 54.8%

ARI: 45.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.34

ARI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

TOR

P. Mrazek

ARI

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	P. Mrazek	23	18	5	78.3%	1.45	0	-3.55
ARI	S. Wedgewood	38	34	4	89.5%	3.78	1	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs ARI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-29	TOR 4 - 2 ARI	TOR	TOR
2024-02-21	ARI 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2022-12-29	ARI 6 - 3 TOR	ARI	TOR
2022-10-17	TOR 2 - 4 ARI	ARI	TOR
2022-03-10	TOR 4 - 5 ARI	ARI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	0	0.85
1	ARI	10	0	0.50
2	TOR	17	0	0.95
2	ARI	9	0	0.47
3	TOR	21	1	1.83
3	ARI	5	0	0.28
4	TOR	2	0	0.15
4	ARI	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 5 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2