Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-04-12 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 48.2%

PIT: 51.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.26

PIT: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 53%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	49	45	4	91.8%	4.49	1	0.49
PIT	C. DeSmith	40	35	5	87.5%	3.33	1	-1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • NYI at home vs PIT: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	0.64
1	PIT	18	0	1.61
2	NYI	10	0	0.58
2	PIT	19	0	1.30
3	NYI	17	0	1.00
3	PIT	14	1	1.09
4	NYI	4	0	0.29
4	PIT	3	0	0.29
5	NYI	3	1	0.83
5	PIT	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5