Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-10 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

CGY: 57.1%

TBL: 42.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.28

TBL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

CGY

J. Markstrom

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	31	30	1	96.8%	3.01	2	2.01
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	28	4	87.5%	3.69	0	-0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	1.09
1	TBL	17	1	1.28
2	CGY	19	0	1.77
2	TBL	20	1	1.36
3	CGY	9	0	0.84
3	TBL	6	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0