Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-03-11 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

NYI: 52.6%

WPG: 47.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.08

WPG: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	29	27	2	93.1%	3.36	1	1.36
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	38	33	5	86.8%	3.67	2	-1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • NYI at home vs WPG: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	WPG 5 - 4 NYI	WPG	WPG
2025-10-13	NYI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-03-04	NYI 3 - 2 WPG	NYI	WPG
2025-02-07	WPG 4 - 3 NYI	WPG	WPG
2024-03-23	NYI 6 - 3 WPG	NYI	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	1	1.05
1	WPG	8	0	0.57
2	NYI	13	0	0.80
2	WPG	15	1	1.10
3	NYI	21	1	1.81
3	WPG	19	0	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1