Arizona Coyotes at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-03-12 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

BOS: 59.4%

ARI: 40.6%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.92

ARI: 2.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	27	2	93.1%	2.37	0	0.37
ARI	K. Vejmelka	40	37	3	92.5%	3.97	2	0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BOS at home vs ARI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-09	ARI 4 - 3 BOS	ARI	ARI
2023-12-09	BOS 5 - 3 ARI	BOS	BOS
2022-12-09	ARI 4 - 3 BOS	ARI	BOS
2022-10-15	BOS 6 - 3 ARI	BOS	BOS
2022-03-12	BOS 3 - 2 ARI	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	18	0	1.70
1	ARI	13	0	0.85
2	BOS	14	1	1.01
2	ARI	16	0	0.82
3	BOS	18	1	1.27
3	ARI	8	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.9 - 2.6