Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-03-12 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 6 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

OTT: 45.1%

CHI: 54.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.17

CHI: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

CHI

M. Fleury

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	28	22	6	78.6%	2.10	0	-3.90
CHI	M. Fleury	23	20	3	87.0%	1.78	1	-1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs CHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	OTT 6 - 4 CHI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-28	CHI 7 - 3 OTT	CHI	CHI
2025-04-15	OTT 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	OTT
2025-03-05	CHI 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-28	OTT 2 - 0 CHI	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	10	1	0.65
1	CHI	11	0	0.37
2	OTT	13	0	0.62
2	CHI	16	0	1.23
3	OTT	8	0	0.51
3	CHI	10	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 6 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2