Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

CGY: 66.4%

DET: 33.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.80

DET: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	19	19	0	100.0%	1.44	0	1.44
DET	T. Greiss	43	40	3	93.0%	4.02	2	1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • CGY at home vs DET: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DET 5 - 2 CGY	DET	DET
2025-12-10	CGY 3 - 4 DET	DET	CGY
2025-02-01	CGY 1 - 3 DET	DET	CGY
2024-11-27	DET 2 - 1 CGY	DET	DET
2024-02-17	CGY 0 - 5 DET	DET	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	24	1	1.42
1	DET	5	0	0.38
2	CGY	20	0	1.16
2	DET	7	0	0.31
3	CGY	16	1	1.44
3	DET	23	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 0 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8