Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-03-13 • Tim Hortons Field

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 42.8%

TOR: 57.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.48

TOR: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

BUF

C. Anderson

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	36	34	2	94.4%	3.77	0	1.77
TOR	P. Mrazek	38	33	5	86.8%	4.46	3	-0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BUF at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	TOR
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	1	1.54
1	TOR	16	0	1.04
2	BUF	11	0	0.51
2	TOR	25	0	1.83
3	BUF	17	2	2.41
3	TOR	14	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.5 - 2.9