Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-03-13 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

NYI: 70.5%

ANA: 29.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.32

ANA: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	42	39	3	92.9%	4.04	1	1.04
ANA	John Gibson	29	25	4	86.2%	3.18	2	-0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYI at home vs ANA: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	ANA 5 - 1 NYI	ANA	NYI
2025-12-11	NYI 5 - 2 ANA	NYI	NYI
2025-03-09	ANA 4 - 1 NYI	ANA	NYI
2024-10-29	NYI 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	NYI
2024-03-10	ANA 1 - 6 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	1	0.99
1	ANA	16	1	1.00
2	NYI	10	0	0.78
2	ANA	15	0	1.22
3	NYI	9	1	1.41
3	ANA	19	0	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6