Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-03-13 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 62.0%

MTL: 38.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.29

MTL: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

PHI

C. Hart

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	35	31	4	88.6%	3.32	2	-0.68
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	27	3	90.0%	3.38	2	0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PHI at home vs MTL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	17	1	1.57
1	MTL	14	0	0.74
2	PHI	9	0	0.70
2	MTL	15	2	1.34
3	PHI	12	1	0.98
3	MTL	17	0	1.19
4	PHI	4	0	0.14
4	MTL	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7