Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-03-13 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 41.4%

VGK: 58.6%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.81

VGK: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 58%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	27	23	4	85.2%	3.09	1	-0.91
VGK	L. Thompson	38	32	6	84.2%	4.13	1	-1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CBJ at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	VGK 5 - 3 CBJ	VGK	VGK
2025-12-13	CBJ 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-13	CBJ 0 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-30	VGK 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	VGK
2024-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 CBJ	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	19	0	1.71
1	VGK	10	0	0.66
2	CBJ	16	0	1.29
2	VGK	16	0	1.30
3	CBJ	9	1	1.12
3	VGK	13	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2