Arizona Coyotes at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-03-14 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Arizona Coyotes

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 60.3%

ARI: 39.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.10

ARI: 2.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

ARI

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	15	10	5	66.7%	2.51	3	-2.49
ARI	S. Wedgewood	43	40	3	93.0%	4.25	2	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs ARI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-01	OTT 3 - 5 ARI	ARI	OTT
2023-12-19	ARI 4 - 3 OTT	ARI	ARI
2023-01-12	ARI 3 - 5 OTT	OTT	ARI
2022-10-22	OTT 6 - 2 ARI	OTT	OTT
2022-03-14	OTT 3 - 5 ARI	ARI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	21	1	1.32
1	ARI	9	2	1.32
2	OTT	25	1	1.71
2	ARI	5	0	0.37
3	OTT	19	0	1.23
3	ARI	8	1	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.1 - 2.3