Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2022-03-16 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 55.5%

TBL: 44.5%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.35

TBL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	42	38	4	90.5%	3.30	1	-0.70
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	24	1	96.0%	2.30	2	1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SEA at home vs TBL: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	16	1	1.04
1	TBL	20	0	1.05
2	SEA	11	1	0.82
2	TBL	17	0	0.68
3	SEA	7	0	0.44
3	TBL	19	1	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1