Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-03-17 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

Win Probability

STL: 48.0%

PIT: 52.0%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.27

PIT: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

STL

V. Husso

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	V. Husso	49	46	3	93.9%	5.34	2	2.34
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	25	2	92.6%	2.73	0	0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • STL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	12	0	0.98
1	PIT	13	0	0.83
2	STL	9	0	0.70
2	PIT	20	1	1.93
3	STL	10	0	0.41
3	PIT	22	0	1.19
4	STL	6	0	0.40
4	PIT	6	0	0.51
5	STL	4	0	0.23
5	PIT	4	1	0.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2