Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-03-17 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

EDM: 62.8%

BUF: 37.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.38

BUF: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

M. Smith

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	28	27	1	96.4%	1.66	0	0.66
BUF	C. Anderson	36	30	6	83.3%	4.46	3	-1.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	BUF
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	17	2	1.38
1	BUF	7	0	0.40
2	EDM	19	0	1.50
2	BUF	13	0	0.82
3	EDM	15	1	1.57
3	BUF	12	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7