Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-03-19 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

MTL: 59.1%

OTT: 40.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.88

OTT: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

J. Allen

OTT

F. Gustavsson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	30	29	1	96.7%	2.96	2	1.96
OTT	F. Gustavsson	27	22	5	81.5%	2.22	0	-2.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • MTL at home vs OTT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	0	0.88
1	OTT	17	1	1.33
2	MTL	13	0	1.02
2	OTT	16	1	1.26
3	MTL	8	0	0.33
3	OTT	7	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8