Pittsburgh Penguins at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-03-19 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

ARI: 47.2%

PIT: 52.8%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.90

PIT: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

ARI

S. Wedgewood

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	S. Wedgewood	49	45	4	91.8%	5.75	6	1.75
PIT	Tristan Jarry	21	20	1	95.2%	1.92	1	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ARI at home vs PIT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-22	ARI 5 - 2 PIT	ARI	PIT
2023-12-12	PIT 4 - 2 ARI	PIT	PIT
2023-01-08	ARI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2022-10-13	PIT 6 - 2 ARI	PIT	ARI
2022-03-19	ARI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	8	0	0.40
1	PIT	26	1	1.50
2	ARI	14	1	0.85
2	PIT	22	1	1.97
3	ARI	10	0	0.67
3	PIT	21	4	2.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4