Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-03-21 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 48.5%

EDM: 51.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.16

EDM: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

D. Kuemper

EDM

M. Smith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	25	23	2	92.0%	2.06	0	0.06
EDM	M. Smith	31	28	3	90.3%	3.34	0	0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • COL at home vs EDM: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	COL	17	1.27
1	EDM	13	0.93
2	COL	8	0.47
2	EDM	10	0.46
3	COL	18	1.19
3	EDM	11	0.67
4	COL	3	0.42
4	EDM	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0