San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 70.6%

SJS: 29.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.96

SJS: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

CGY

J. Markstrom

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	38	34	4	89.5%	3.27	2	-0.73
SJS	J. Reimer	31	28	3	90.3%	3.74	5	0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs SJS: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	1	0.99
1	SJS	16	1	0.79
2	CGY	17	3	1.43
2	SJS	15	1	1.22
3	CGY	23	1	1.32
3	SJS	17	0	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 5.0 - 2.6