Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-03-23 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

Win Probability

BUF: 54.5%

PIT: 45.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.06

PIT: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

C. Anderson

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	28	25	3	89.3%	2.43	0	-0.57
PIT	C. DeSmith	36	31	5	86.1%	4.26	2	-0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PIT: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.57
1	PIT	12	0	0.49
2	BUF	18	0	1.20
2	PIT	13	0	0.76
3	BUF	11	0	0.75
3	PIT	10	0	0.84
4	BUF	1	0	0.07
4	PIT	3	0	0.25
5	BUF	3	2	1.68
5	PIT	2	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0