Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2022-03-24 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 58.5%

DAL: 41.5%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.14

DAL: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

DAL

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	17	13	4	76.5%	2.48	1	-1.52
DAL	S. Wedgewood	50	47	3	94.0%	4.69	3	1.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CAR at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	CAR 6 - 3 DAL	CAR	CAR
2025-10-25	DAL 3 - 2 CAR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-21	DAL 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	DAL
2024-11-25	CAR 6 - 4 DAL	CAR	CAR
2024-02-24	CAR 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	24	1	1.30
1	DAL	7	0	0.41
2	CAR	23	1	1.42
2	DAL	6	0	0.34
3	CAR	18	1	1.22
3	DAL	6	0	0.64
4	CAR	6	0	0.57
4	DAL	2	0	0.14
5	CAR	3	0	0.19
5	DAL	2	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9