Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-03-24 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 60.1%

PHI: 39.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.25

PHI: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	27	22	5	81.5%	3.22	1	-1.78
PHI	M. Jones	28	26	2	92.9%	3.66	0	1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs PHI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	0	0.52
1	PHI	13	0	0.96
2	STL	18	0	1.46
2	PHI	14	0	0.82
3	STL	19	0	1.68
3	PHI	9	1	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9