San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-03-24 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

EDM: 61.9%

SJS: 38.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.56

SJS: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

M. Smith

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	30	28	2	93.3%	2.85	2	0.85
SJS	K. Kahkonen	41	36	5	87.8%	5.74	5	0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • EDM at home vs SJS: 9-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	SJS 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	SJS
2026-03-17	EDM 5 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2026-02-28	SJS 5 - 4 EDM	SJS	EDM
2026-01-29	EDM 4 - 3 SJS	EDM	EDM
2025-04-16	SJS 0 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	19	1	0.99
1	SJS	9	0	0.43
2	EDM	18	2	2.25
2	SJS	16	0	1.18
3	EDM	19	2	2.50
3	SJS	13	2	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7