Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-03-25 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Washington Capitals (SO)

Win Probability

BUF: 42.6%

WSH: 57.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.82

WSH: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

BUF

D. Tokarski

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	42	37	5	88.1%	5.15	2	0.15
WSH	I. Samsonov	25	21	4	84.0%	3.39	2	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BUF at home vs WSH: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	WSH
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	8	0	0.39
1	WSH	16	0	1.09
2	BUF	13	0	0.74
2	WSH	19	0	0.87
3	BUF	9	1	0.88
3	WSH	13	0	0.79
4	BUF	7	0	0.51
4	WSH	7	0	0.49
5	BUF	3	1	0.87
5	WSH	3	2	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3