Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-03-25 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 47.4%

PIT: 52.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.17

PIT: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	21	20	1	95.2%	1.77	0	0.77
PIT	Tristan Jarry	33	28	5	84.8%	3.11	0	-1.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NYR at home vs PIT: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYR	14	1.09
1	PIT	8	0.46
2	NYR	15	1.05
2	PIT	12	0.70
3	NYR	14	0.97
3	PIT	12	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6