Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-03-25 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

COL: 63.3%

PHI: 36.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.51

PHI: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

P. Francouz

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	P. Francouz	31	28	3	90.3%	1.83	0	-1.17
PHI	C. Hart	51	45	6	88.2%	3.59	1	-2.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	PHI
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	24	0	1.10
1	PHI	10	0	0.66
2	COL	26	1	2.04
2	PHI	11	0	0.58
3	COL	15	0	0.46
3	PHI	11	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8