New York Islanders at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-03-26 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

BOS: 60.6%

NYI: 39.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.07

NYI: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

L. Ullmark

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	27	24	3	88.9%	2.54	2	-0.46
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	44	38	6	86.4%	5.60	8	-0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BOS at home vs NYI: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	26	4	2.50
1	NYI	17	0	1.05
2	BOS	23	4	2.26
2	NYI	9	1	0.94
3	BOS	14	0	0.84
3	NYI	7	1	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 6 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7