Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-03-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 40.5%

TOR: 59.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.66

TOR: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

MTL

J. Allen

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	51	49	2	96.1%	4.53	4	2.53
TOR	E. Kallgren	18	14	4	77.8%	2.58	3	-1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • MTL at home vs TOR: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	5	1	0.47
1	TOR	13	2	1.46
2	MTL	15	1	1.18
2	TOR	20	0	1.14
3	MTL	5	1	0.93
3	TOR	28	2	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5