Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-03-26 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

DET: 46.4%

TBL: 53.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.97

TBL: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	36	34	2	94.4%	4.13	2	2.13
TBL	B. Elliott	27	26	1	96.3%	3.05	2	2.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DET at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	8	1	0.77
1	TBL	9	0	0.71
2	DET	11	0	0.68
2	TBL	14	0	0.76
3	DET	20	1	1.60
3	TBL	20	2	2.09
4	DET	0	0	0.00
4	TBL	5	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5