New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-03-26 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 41.5%

NJD: 58.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.23

NJD: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

V. Vanecek

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	38	35	3	92.1%	3.61	0	0.61
NJD	Nico Daws	22	18	4	81.8%	2.07	0	-1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 26% • WSH at home vs NJD: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	WSH	12	0.51
1	NJD	17	1.15
2	WSH	17	1.02
2	NJD	19	0.99
3	WSH	9	0.54
3	NJD	23	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2