Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-03-26 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 55.9%

VAN: 44.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.92

VAN: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 54%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	31	27	4	87.1%	3.22	2	-0.78
VAN	Thatcher Demko	36	35	1	97.2%	3.21	0	2.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • DAL at home vs VAN: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	VAN
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	19	0	0.99
1	VAN	15	0	0.67
2	DAL	8	0	0.46
2	VAN	23	0	1.24
3	DAL	22	0	1.76
3	VAN	13	2	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2