Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-03-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 11 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

PIT: 62.8%

DET: 37.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.29

DET: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	35	33	2	94.3%	3.42	1	1.42
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	35	24	11	68.6%	4.05	2	-6.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs DET: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	1.21
1	DET	18	1	1.27
2	PIT	15	1	1.38
2	DET	17	0	1.35
3	PIT	20	1	1.46
3	DET	14	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 11 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8